Have gone with 14th August 2012, solely because it seems as if everybody else is going April, May or October and I would like a better chance to win if actually get close to the date.
Everybody probably is right with somewhere around the 23th of October though; it's a good amount of time after the release date, it goes with the history of previous games and it isn't near the release date of Max Payne (why would they release one of the greatest games of all time at a point where it could compete with another game they've got in the market?)